The polling for the 294-member Assembly took place in two phases, with the first on April 23 and the second on April 29. By 11 am on April 29, voter turnout was reported at 39.97%.

Key statistics:

• The total number of Assembly seats is 294.
• Majority of exit polls suggest that the BJP has an edge over TMC.
• Today’s Chanakya predicts BJP could secure 192 seats (plus/minus 11) and TMC around 100 seats (plus/minus 11).
• Approximately 3.21 crore voters are eligible in this phase covering 142 seats.

Ganguly remarked, “How can I answer such a question? Only on Monday, when the ballot box opens, will we all know the answer.” He noted that in the previous phase, voter turnout exceeded 90%.

The main contest remains between the Trinamool Congress (TMC) and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). The counting of votes is scheduled for May 4, 2026.

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According to exit polls, the UDF is expected to secure 70-75 seats in the Kerala Assembly elections. Meanwhile, the Left Democratic Front (LDF) is projected to win 60-65 seats.

The National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is anticipated to secure around 3-5 seats. The majority mark in the Kerala Assembly is 71 seats.

As of midday, voter turnout stood at 78.27%, reflecting significant engagement from the electorate. With a total of 140 Assembly seats, this election marks a critical moment for Kerala’s political landscape.

The UDF aims to replace the LDF government currently in power. This follows a historic verdict in the 2021 polls when the LDF broke Kerala’s long-standing pattern of alternating governments.

However, analysts caution that exit polls are just predictions based on surveys and can turn out to be wrong on the result day (May 4).

The UDF’s potential victory would signify a major shift in power dynamics within the state. Political observers are closely watching how these projections will translate into actual votes.

Both sides are preparing for possible outcomes as they await official results. The next ruling is expected on May 12.

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Before this prediction, expectations centered around the established parties, DMK and AIADMK. Both parties have dominated Tamil Nadu politics for decades.

However, the recent numbers indicate a shift. TVK is projected to secure around 35% of the vote share, which could match the ruling DMK-led bloc.

As of midday, DMK-INC+ is expected to win 92-110 seats, while NDA is projected to take only 22-32 seats. This significant change highlights the evolving political dynamics in Tamil Nadu.

Vijay emerges as the most preferred choice for Chief Minister with 37% support, just ahead of MK Stalin at 35%. This marks a notable rise in Vijay’s political influence.

The support for TVK cuts across various demographics. Notably, 68% of first-time voters aged 18-19 favor TVK, along with 59% among voters aged 20-29.

The desire for change resonates strongly among voters. About 35% cite this as their primary reason for supporting TVK, rising to an impressive 77% among its supporters.

Pradeep Gupta noted that “Vijay’s rise parallels that of former chief ministers MG Ramachandran (MGR) in Tamil Nadu and NT Ram Rao in Andhra Pradesh.” This comparison underscores the potential impact of TVK on local politics.

Experts suggest that if these projections hold true, TVK could become the largest party in Tamil Nadu and play a kingmaker role in a fractured mandate.

This rise signals a break from Tamil Nadu’s long-standing bipolar politics. The upcoming elections on April 29 will be crucial in determining how this shift unfolds.

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